Prop Firm on FX Backtest Diary

Changing only when and how much I withdraw cut my first prop payout from 530 to 169 days

Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000

I did not touch the trading logic. I did not change what the system risks per trade. And yet the median time to my first prop firm payout fell from 530 trading days to 169, roughly a third of the original wait. The only thing that changed was the payout policy: when to withdraw, and how much to leave behind.

My prop challenge math said +¥71,227, then a zero-edge test and one -6.32% day broke it

Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A 38% pass rate and +¥71,227 of expected value. That is what my first prop-challenge simulation handed me, and for a moment it looked like a green light. Then a sanity check showed the same model paying +¥45,753 to a strategy with zero edge, which is impossible, and a minute-by-minute rebuild of the account found one intervention day where equity sank 6.32% intraday. Instant disqualification, on a day my daily-bar backtest recorded as spotless.

Running My EA on a Real Prop-Firm Account (Live Forward Log)

Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Most articles on this site are backtests. This page is different: it is the live forward record — what is happening right now to the EA running on a real account.

Ground rules for this log:

Only measured numbers from the actual account. If I ever quote an estimate or a simulation, I will label it as such.
Bad results get reported exactly like good ones. If the account fails the evaluation, this page will say so.
Updates are irregular (when something happens, plus milestones).

What is running, under what conditions

Item	Details
Account	Fintokei ProTrader Challenge STEP 1 (a real evaluation account)
Account size	¥10,000,000
Start date	2026-07-04
Pass conditions	+8% (then +6% in STEP 2). One breach of daily -5%, max -10%, or total open risk -3% means failure
EA	CoreSystemV14 — the MT5 implementation of the finalized system validated on this site (all 7 sleeves)
Risk settings	Challenge preset (base leverage 2.5 / cap 2.5 — stage 1 of the three-stage plan)
Safety guards	Flatten everything at daily -4%; halt new entries + flatten at account DD -7% (designed to step off well before the disqualification lines)

For transparency, the backtest-derived expectations (past data, 2015–2026, 11 years): +0.82%/month, PF 1.66, max DD -7.7% for the base system. Monte Carlo on the challenge settings says there is roughly a 30% chance of touching a -5% account drawdown at some point before passing, and about a 1% failure probability on the unstressed distribution. In other words: seeing a few percent of drawdown along the way is part of the plan.

The Numbers Behind the Current Logic — How Long a Prop Pass Takes, and What Monthly Return Is Possible Without Limits

Fri, 03 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This site has accumulated 167 verification studies. This article answers the obvious question: “So with the current logic, what can it actually do?” — in one page.

Everything below is a theoretical value from backtests and Monte Carlo simulation. It is not a guarantee of live results (reasons at the end).