https://etherpoc.com/en/tags/multiple-testing/Recent content in Multiple Testing on FX Backtest DiaryHugoenFri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://etherpoc.com/en/posts/scan-era-longonly/Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://etherpoc.com/en/posts/scan-era-longonly/<p>&ldquo;Standard technical indicators hold no exploitable edge in FX price data.&rdquo; I wrote that conclusion in my own research log. Then I had to retract it. One approach, long-only trend following (buying only, never shorting), turned out to be genuine, posting +52.6% total in forward testing. The thing hiding it had never been the market. It was my own test design.</p>https://etherpoc.com/en/posts/census-38k/Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://etherpoc.com/en/posts/census-38k/<p>&ldquo;Somewhere in the data, there must be a pattern nobody has noticed yet.&rdquo; Every trader entertains that thought at some point. I answered it by brute force: three exhaustive layers of candidates built mechanically from price and volume, 38,439 statistical tests in total. The punchline up front: exactly two real edges exist in this data, and I already knew both of them.</p>