Expected Value on FX Backtest Diaryhttps://etherpoc.com/en/tags/expected-value/Recent content in Expected Value on FX Backtest DiaryHugoenFri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000My prop challenge math said +¥71,227, then a zero-edge test and one -6.32% day broke ithttps://etherpoc.com/en/posts/prop-mc-foundations/Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://etherpoc.com/en/posts/prop-mc-foundations/<p>A 38% pass rate and +¥71,227 of expected value. That is what my first prop-challenge simulation handed me, and for a moment it looked like a green light. Then a sanity check showed the same model paying +¥45,753 to a strategy with zero edge, which is impossible, and a minute-by-minute rebuild of the account found one intervention day where equity sank 6.32% intraday. Instant disqualification, on a day my daily-bar backtest recorded as spotless.</p>