The Numbers Behind the Current Logic — How Long a Prop Pass Takes, and What Monthly Return Is Possible Without Limits
After 167 studies, here is the one-page summary: theoretical pass rates and timelines for a 2-step prop challenge with the current logic (PF 1.64), and the monthly returns achievable on a personal account with no prop restrictions.
This site has accumulated 167 verification studies. This article answers the obvious question: “So with the current logic, what can it actually do?” — in one page.
Everything below is a theoretical value from backtests and Monte Carlo simulation. It is not a guarantee of live results (reasons at the end).
The setup: what the current logic is
- A basket of six strategies (sleeves): trend-following (JPY crosses + gold), stock indices, a calendar anomaly, mean reversion (Connors RSI2), a regime-independent long-short mean-reversion sleeve, and Dow structure + horizontal levels.
- Verified on 11 years of real data (2015–2026). PF 1.64 / raw monthly return ≈ 0.8% at 1x leverage / max drawdown -8.4%.
- Measured under a strict model that reconstructs intraday (1-minute) equity paths and weekend gaps (Study 156).
From here, only the shape of risk changes between the prop version and the personal version. The logic (the edge) is identical.
Theoretical values for a 2-step prop challenge
Simulated on a Fintokei ProTrader-style challenge (STEP1 +8% → STEP2 +6%, daily -5% / max -10%), with failed attempts paying the fee and restarting.
| Item | Theoretical value |
|---|---|
| STEP1 (+8%) | median 55 trading days (~2.6 months), 95.8% pass |
| STEP2 (+6%) | median 39 trading days (~1.9 months), 96.5% pass |
| Full pass (both steps) | median 94 trading days (~4.5 months), 92.5% first-try |
| Expected fees incl. retries | roughly one entry fee (+a few %) |
| Time to first payout (withdraw at the first profitable bi-weekly cycle after funding) | median 169 trading days (~8 months) total, 65% within 1 year |
| Ongoing payouts once funded | ≈ 1.0–1.16% of the account per month (PF stays 1.64) |
Three points worth noting:
- Attack during the challenge, defend after funding. Failing a challenge only costs the entry fee, so the challenge runs an aggressive setting (with retries, eventual pass rate is ~100% in simulation). Once funded, losing the account is expensive, so risk drops back to moderate.
- Withdraw at the first cycle instead of building a cushion first. The “build a cushion, then withdraw” policy takes ~25 months to first payout in theory; withdrawing immediately cuts that to ~8 months (then build the cushion afterwards).
- These are medians. Half of the simulated paths are faster; unlucky ones take ~1.5x longer. Real-world guard throttling isn’t modeled, so expect another 10–20% slippage in time.
Without limits: what monthly return on a personal account?
On a personal account with no prop rules, the story becomes simple. Keep the same logic and just raise leverage (k) — where to stop is decided solely by how much drawdown you can stomach.
| Leverage k | Annual (monthly) | 3-year multiple | Max DD guide (95th pct) | P(account halves) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 (conservative) | 36%/yr (2.6%/mo) | 2.5x | -33% | ~0% |
| 5 (aggressive) | 63%/yr (4.1%/mo) | 4.3x | -50% | ~5% |
| 8 | 104%/yr (6.1%/mo) | 8.4x | -69% | ~40% |
| 10 | 132%/yr (7.3%/mo) | 12x | -78% | ~68% |
The theoretical growth maximum sits even higher (Kelly ≈ k20), but beyond k=8 the chance of halving your account becomes very real — effectively gambling. The realistic menu is “2.6%/month at a 33% DD budget” or “4.1%/month at a 50% DD budget.” PF stays 1.64 in every row — you are buying risk, not edge.
The most interesting lesson: the right armor flips with the rules
For the prop account, a combination of a “flatten-everything at daily -4%” guard and a dynamic leverage that automatically de-risks near the account floor was a dramatic win (+64% monthly payout). Yet carrying the same tools into a personal account cuts the growth rate by half to two-thirds.
The reason is simple: a prop account has a cliff — daily -5% means instant disqualification — so stopping just before the cliff is enormously valuable. A personal account has no cliff; if you hold through a bad day you participate in the recovery, so cutting early is pure cost. The same edge demands opposite risk management under different rules — arguably the most universal finding across all 167 studies.
Important caveats
- All numbers are theoretical values from historical backtests plus Monte Carlo. The future is not guaranteed to resemble the past; in particular, the trend sleeves depend on the yen-weakness / gold-strength regime (a known, documented risk).
- Slippage, swaps and execution costs are only partially modeled. The plan is to verify on demo forward tests before scaling real money.
- This is not investment advice. Always check prop firm terms (payout rules, multiple-account policies, etc.) on the official site.