Pick your risk: how fast it grows, how deep it sinks
I have finished integrating a new "Risk Preset" system into the Personal version of my EA.
Weekend-gap fade example (GBPNZD H1, real data): trading the refill of a down gap across the weekend.
Personal EA v1.6.0: Integrating Risk Presets
I have finished integrating a new “Risk Preset” system into the Personal version of my EA. The goal was to provide clear, selectable risk profiles (Low, Medium, and High) based on static leverage (k) settings, while ensuring the underlying strategy performance remains consistent. The logic relies on a 750-day Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, which estimates the probability of passing prop-firm-style drawdown rules. Across all leverage levels, the Profit Factor (PF) remains a steady 1.69. By using the current “Configuration D + wgap” framework, I saw a 13% to 18% improvement in monthly returns compared to previous iterations at the same leverage settings.
Performance comparison by leverage (k)
| Leverage (k) | Monthly Return (median) | Max DD (median) | 95th Percentile DD | Prob. of -35% Exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| k2.0 (Low) | 2.03% | -11.8% | -19.4% | 0% |
| k3.0 (Mid) | 3.00% | -17.3% | -27.9% | 0.5% |
| k4.0 (High) | 3.95% | -22.5% | -35.7% | 2.0% |
| k5.0 | 4.86% | -27.6% | -42.9% | 4.9% |
| Note: Probabilities for exit shown under stress test conditions. Max DD = maximum drawdown (peak-to-trough decline). |
Implementation details
The new InpPreset setting in the EA interface allows you to choose between Custom, Low (k2.0), Medium (k3.0), and High (k4.0). Selecting a preset automatically overrides the internal leverage settings, and the active preset is logged during startup and in Webhook reports for easier tracking.
I have specifically excluded k5.0 from the default presets because the 95th percentile drawdown reaches -43%, which exceeds my personal -35% “stop-trading” threshold. However, users can still access this level via the “Custom” setting if they are comfortable with higher volatility.
Update: Adjusting the “High” Preset (v1.6.1)
After further stress testing, I have updated the “High” preset to k5.0 with a wider -50% exit threshold. My analysis of bankruptcy risk shows that even at k8.0, the risk of total account loss is near 0%. This is because the “Configuration D” strategy uses an 8-sleeve diversification approach that keeps the Sharpe ratio high, preventing a total wipeout on any single day. The only real constraint is the voluntary exit threshold I set for myself. Because the -35% exit threshold was triggering too frequently at higher leverage (resulting in an early stop 1 in 21 times), I have adjusted the logic:
- Low and Medium presets: Remain at k2.0/k3.0 with a -35% exit threshold.
- High preset: Now set to k5.0 with the exit threshold automatically updated to -50%. At this level, the probability of hitting that -50% exit is only 0.8%, while the median monthly return sits at roughly 4.9%. This configuration provides a better balance for those prioritizing growth, while still maintaining a safety buffer. These changes are already deployed.
How this connects
This verification builds on earlier ones (what failed before and what I tried this time, comparisons between approaches).