Mean reversion on FX Backtest Diary

EA v1.5.0: The Ultimate Balance of Monthly Profit and Risk Revealed!

Sun, 21 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “EA v1.5.0: The Ultimate Balance of Monthly Profit and Risk Revealed!”.

Connors RSI2 entry example (USDJPY daily, real data): buy the dip when price is above the 200-day SMA and RSI(2) falls below 10.

Market-Wide Oversold: Our EA Found a Real Mean Reversion Insight!

Sat, 20 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “Market-Wide Oversold: Our EA Found a Real Mean Reversion Insight!”.

Connors RSI2 entry example (USDJPY daily, real data): buy the dip when price is above the 200-day SMA and RSI(2) falls below 10.

The Nampin Trap: Our EA Reveals How Averaging Down Amplifies Losses!

Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “The Nampin Trap: Our EA Reveals How Averaging Down Amplifies Losses!”.

Mean-reversion (RSI) signal example (EURUSD daily, real data): look for a bounce when RSI is oversold.

What’s the big idea?

Today, we’re diving into a trading concept called Nampin, or “averaging down.” You might have heard of it, and it sounds appealing on the surface. The basic idea is this: if you open a trade and the market moves against you, putting you in a floating loss, you open another position in the same direction at the new, worse price. The goal? To lower your overall average entry price. If the market then recovers even slightly, you reach breakeven or profit faster than if you’d just waited for your initial entry price to be hit. It’s the opposite of pyramiding (which we looked at in Research 53), where you add to a winning position. With Nampin, you’re essentially buying more when your trade is already losing, hoping for a bounce. It’s a common strategy, especially among manual traders, but can it work for an Expert Advisor (EA)? Let’s find out!

EA Awakens! New "Connors RSI2" Logic Brings Real Profit Power!

Wed, 17 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “EA Awakens! New “Connors RSI2” Logic Brings Real Profit Power!”.

Connors RSI2 entry example (USDJPY daily, real data): buy the dip when price is above the 200-day SMA and RSI(2) falls below 10.

Do Stronger Support/Resistance Lines Mean More Wins? We Tested It!

Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “Do Stronger Support/Resistance Lines Mean More Wins? We Tested It!”.

Breakout entry example (XAUUSD daily, real data): buy when price breaks above the recent high.

What’s the idea?

Wouldn’t it be great if we could spot market conditions that almost guarantee higher win rates for our Expert Advisors (EAs)? The thinking goes like this: imagine the market as a landscape with support and resistance levels – those invisible lines where prices tend to bounce or break. Some areas might have many strong, clear levels stacked up, while others are a bit “flatter” or less defined. The user hypothesis we wanted to test was simple: if a market looks “structurally strong” – meaning lots of clear support/resistance levels (what we call “level intensity” or “level strength”) – then our trading strategy should perform better there. And if it performs better, why not increase our risk a bit to capitalize on those supposedly “safer” or higher-probability trades? More strength, more profit, right? We wanted to see if this “strength-linked sizing” strategy made sense.

Aggressive EA Strategy: Why Our Core+Per-Pair Crumbled Under Costs

Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “Aggressive EA Strategy: Why Our Core+Per-Pair Crumbled Under Costs”.

Connors RSI2 entry example (USDJPY daily, real data): buy the dip when price is above the 200-day SMA and RSI(2) falls below 10.

Beyond One EA: How Blending Core & Per-Pair Redefined FX Automation

Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “Beyond One EA: How Blending Core & Per-Pair Redefined FX Automation”.

Mean-reversion (RSI) signal example (EURUSD daily, real data): look for a bounce when RSI is oversold.

What’s the Big Idea? Blending EAs for Better Returns!

Ever wondered if combining different automated trading strategies, or Expert Advisors (EAs), could lead to even better results than running them individually? That’s exactly what we set out to explore in our latest research! The core idea was to blend the daily signals from three distinct EAs to see if their combined strength could create a more powerful and profitable system.

The Unstoppable EA Evolution: Our Quest for New Trading Logic!

Sun, 24 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “The Unstoppable EA Evolution: Our Quest for New Trading Logic!”.

Connors RSI2 entry example (USDJPY daily, real data): buy the dip when price is above the 200-day SMA and RSI(2) falls below 10.

Are Popular Indicators Always King? What Our EA Test Revealed!

Thu, 21 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “Are Popular Indicators Always King? What Our EA Test Revealed!”.

Connors RSI2 entry example (USDJPY daily, real data): buy the dip when price is above the 200-day SMA and RSI(2) falls below 10.

Decoding the Market: Finding the Best Logic and Realistic Monthly Profits!

Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “Decoding the Market: Finding the Best Logic and Realistic Monthly Profits!”.

Connors RSI2 entry example (USDJPY daily, real data): buy the dip when price is above the 200-day SMA and RSI(2) falls below 10.

EA Enhancement Fails: "Level Importance" Couldn't Boost BreakoutLong!

Thu, 14 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “EA Enhancement Fails: “Level Importance” Couldn’t Boost BreakoutLong!”.

Breakout entry example (XAUUSD daily, real data): buy when price breaks above the recent high.

What’s the idea?

Alright, let’s dive into another experiment with our Expert Advisors (EAs). This time, the goal was to improve our “BreakoutLong” strategy, an EA that aims to profit when prices break above a significant resistance level. The idea was to make it smarter by only taking “real” breakouts, not just any little wiggle above a line. We had previously developed a “level importance” scoring system (levels.py) that assigns a score to horizontal support and resistance levels based on how strong or significant they are. This system worked wonders for our yosuga EA, which is a pullback strategy (meaning it buys when price dips to strong support). So, the thinking was: if it works for pullbacks, maybe it can also filter breakouts? The hypothesis was simple: if we only allow the BreakoutLong EA to trade when it breaks through a highly important horizontal level, we could filter out the “noisy small breakouts” that often lead to losses. Our hope was to reduce the correlated drawdown (DD) – that painful period when multiple strategies lose money at the same time – which had hit about -38% in a previous study (Research 85). We wanted to make breakouts more robust by focusing on higher-quality entries.

The +37% Monthly Profit Secret: Blending EAs for Maximum Gain!

Sat, 09 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “The +37% Monthly Profit Secret: Blending EAs for Maximum Gain!”.

Mean-reversion (RSI) signal example (EURUSD daily, real data): look for a bounce when RSI is oversold.

What’s the Big Idea?

Ever thought about combining different trading strategies to get even better results? That’s exactly what we explored here! We took three of our already-verified algorithmic trading systems (also known as Expert Advisors or EAs) – core_system_v1.1.0, satellite, and satellite2 – and tried to blend their daily returns. Our goal was simple: find the perfect mix that maximizes monthly profit while keeping the maximum drawdown (DD) to a sensible 10% or less. Think of it like building a balanced investment portfolio. You don’t just put all your money into one stock; you diversify. We’re doing the same with EAs, hoping that by combining them, we can smooth out returns and boost overall performance. We also looked at how these systems correlate with each other: core and satellite had a moderate correlation of 0.43, core and satellite2 were also moderately correlated at 0.47, but satellite and satellite2 had a much lower correlation of 0.19. Lower correlation often means better diversification!

Volume Profile vs. Swing Levels: Which Gives Your EA The Edge?

Thu, 07 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “Volume Profile vs. Swing Levels: Which Gives Your EA The Edge?”.

What’s the Big Idea? A New Level-Finding Tool for Our EAs!

Here in the lab, we’re always on the hunt for ways to make our algorithmic trading robots (EAs) smarter and more robust. Our current champion framework, built on the solid foundations of Dow Theory, Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTF), and a trusty pullback strategy, has proven itself quite effective. It uses what we call “swing levels” (from our Research 73) to pinpoint key areas where price is likely to react. But what if there’s another powerful way to identify these crucial levels? That’s exactly what we explored in this study. We wanted to see if Volume Profile – a fascinating tool that shows where the most trading activity has occurred – could be integrated into our proven framework as an even more effective “level filter.” Our goal was simple: Could it outperform or at least complement our existing swing levels, especially for FX trading?

Monthly 3% in FX EA: Dream or Reality? Unveiling the True Cost & Limits!

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “Monthly 3% in FX EA: Dream or Reality? Unveiling the True Cost & Limits!”.

Connors RSI2 entry example (USDJPY daily, real data): buy the dip when price is above the 200-day SMA and RSI(2) falls below 10.

Our EA Gets a 3rd Engine: Uncorrelated Strategies for Maximum Stability!

Sat, 25 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “Our EA Gets a 3rd Engine: Uncorrelated Strategies for Maximum Stability!”.

Connors RSI2 entry example (USDJPY daily, real data): buy the dip when price is above the 200-day SMA and RSI(2) falls below 10.

The Adaptive EA Dream DIES? Why Auto-Strategy Switching Fell Flat.

Sat, 11 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “The Adaptive EA Dream DIES? Why Auto-Strategy Switching Fell Flat.”.

Breakout entry example (XAUUSD daily, real data): buy when price breaks above the recent high.

What’s the idea?

Ever wonder if your trading robot (or EA, Expert Advisor) could be smarter? Instead of sticking to one strategy, what if it could adapt its approach based on what the market is doing right now? That’s the core concept behind what we call a “Regime Router” EA. The idea is simple: market conditions (or “regimes”) change all the time – sometimes we’re trending up, sometimes down, sometimes just bouncing in a range. A smart EA, theoretically, could switch to the best strategy for the current regime. For this research, we designed an adaptive EA that could switch between three main sub-logics (which we internally call “sleeves”):

Ride the FX Wave: Our EA Finds the Strongest & Weakest Currency Pairs

Sun, 22 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “Ride the FX Wave: Our EA Finds the Strongest & Weakest Currency Pairs”.

Mean-reversion (RSI) signal example (EURUSD daily, real data): look for a bounce when RSI is oversold.

Hidden Dangers: Our EA's True Intraday Risk Finally Revealed!

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “Hidden Dangers: Our EA’s True Intraday Risk Finally Revealed!”.

Mean-reversion (RSI) signal example (EURUSD daily, real data): look for a bounce when RSI is oversold.

What’s the big idea?

When we talk about verifying algorithmic FX trading strategies (EAs), especially those designed for longer timeframes like daily (D1), it’s easy to get a false sense of security. A D1 strategy only looks at the market once a day, usually at the close of the daily candle. But what if something wild happens during the day? You could hit your daily loss limit and not even know it until the day is over! That’s why we’ve been working on a new approach. The core idea is to take D1 trades and, while they are open, monitor their profit and loss minute-by-minute (M1). This lets us reconstruct our account equity second-by-second and, crucially, detect if we’ve breached our daily or maximum loss limits intraday. Think of it like putting a high-speed camera on your EA’s performance, rather than just a single snapshot at the end of the day.

Can Our EA Pass Prop Firm Challenges? We Simulated the Odds!

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A beginner-friendly summary of the verification: “Can Our EA Pass Prop Firm Challenges? We Simulated the Odds!”.

Mean-reversion (RSI) signal example (EURUSD daily, real data): look for a bounce when RSI is oversold.

What’s the Big Idea?

Ever wondered if your algorithmic trading strategy (EA) has what it takes to pass a prop firm challenge? That’s exactly what we set out to explore with our latest research! We wanted to figure out the probability of success for a given strategy, not just in theory, but by simulating the actual rules of a prop firm. Imagine you have a trading strategy, and you’ve seen how it performs day-to-day. We take that history of daily returns and essentially shuffle and re-deal it many, many times. This process is called block bootstrap resampling – it helps us create thousands of potential future scenarios based on your strategy’s past performance, but with enough randomness to feel realistic. Then, for each of these simulated futures, we apply the prop firm’s specific rules to see how often our strategy would “pass” the challenge.